What We Think Versus the Facts and Results
Based on independent research and an in-person survey of student and teacher opinions.
By Lucas NETRVAL
Edited by Constance BAZIREAU
With the American elections coming up on the 5th of November*, I wondered what the students and teachers in our school think that they know about these elections and how this differs from what the international press and experts say.
The views are vastly different between teachers and students alike, in content and in structure. For example, Mr Leader says “If Trump wins it could be the end of the world: he will stop helping Ukraine, Putin will get more confident and could maybe attack Estonia, which, depending on the response of NATO, could start another world war.” While this statement does contain some truth, as Trump has said he dislikes the idea of funding Ukraine: “They [the Democrats] have been funding and arming a large-scale, open-ended war that does not benefit the US,” he does, however, seem to have a plan. J.D. Vance, his running mate, has said recently on the Shawn Ryan show that the plan involves turning Ukraine into a demilitarised zone “And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone”; he also said that Ukraine should declare neutrality: “Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine – it doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join some of these allied institutions [such as the EU].” While this may sound like a solid plan, there is an example to prove that it could all go very wrong: In 1936, Adolf Hitler ordered the German military to march into the Rhineland, a region that had been demilitarised under the terms of the Treaty of Versailles (1919) and the subsequent Locarno Treaties (1925).
Hearing Mr Leader’s opinion had me thinking: what do my fellow students think?
Some students support Harris like Victor Dalle (S7FRD) who said: “If Trump is chosen, it would be bad for the EU because he wants to remove the American umbrella, and Europe would no longer be defended by American forces. It would be bad for the environment […] Without its influence pushing for sustainable ecological development, there will be no eco-friendly measures implemented globally. […] Trump will destabilise the world since he is aggressive with China; this could manifest itself as boycotts and crises.” Again, this argument is partly factual; Trump has stated many times he doesn’t believe in climate change and global warming. However, the arguments on the American Nuclear Umbrella are seemingly false “According to these [former Trump national security team] officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England, and Turkey.”
On the other hand, Trump supporters’ arguments aren’t always as well structured: “If Harris gets elected, everyone is gonna be f*****g stupid, and it will be the end of society” – Pierre Vaillant-Zamadou S6ENA, this obviously isn’t a factual argument.
Thankfully, there are Trumpists with better thought-out arguments such as Enzo Aoun in S6FRB who says “If Harris were chosen, firstly I think that the war in Ukraine is not gonna end well. Secondly, I think that US internal affairs will collapse on themselves as the USA is going through a lot of crises now, especially with the Texas State Guard facing off with the American Army as an act of resistance. I believe that between two bad choices, Trump is the least bad of the two.”
There are many anonymous students who, when asked, simply said “Trump will win” or “Harris will win”. Well, let’s see about that.
These opinions are obviously biased. So now, what do the professionals think?
Well, even amongst professionals, not everyone is sure of what could happen and what is better. Harris’s candidacy, which became official when she replaced President Biden, has energised young voters significantly. The Harvard Youth Poll shows that Harris holds a commanding lead among voters under 30, with a 31-point advantage over Trump among likely voters. Analysts attribute her strength in this group of youngsters to her focus on issues such as climate change, gun violence, and abortion, which resonate with younger Americans. Harris greatly outperforms Trump on personal attributes like empathy and relatability.
Conversely, Trump keeps staunch support among older and more conservative voters. His policy positions on the economy and foreign relations, including a more nationalist approach, appeal to his base, which is still sceptical of Democratic priorities like climate initiatives and expanded government roles. While Harris has made gains, particularly in building enthusiasm within her party, Trump remains an opponent with solid backing among Republicans and rural voters, especially on economic issues.
*Note: this article was written in October 2024 before the 2024 US Presidential Elections